Kerala Braces for Below-Normal Rainfall as Monsoon Retreats

Quick Summary

• The southwest monsoon began its withdrawal from Rajasthan on September 14, three days earlier than average.
• In Kerala, rainfall during the southwest monsoon season is below normal by 15%, totaling 1,612.6 mm compared to an average of 1,888.2 mm.
• Major weather systems and atmospheric conditions are unlikely to generate intense rainfall in Kerala over the next two weeks; only light to moderate showers are expected.
• According to IMD standards, this year’s southwest monsoon in Kerala falls within “normal” limits despite being below its long-period average of 2,018.7 mm.
• Notably deficient rainfall is reported in Idukki (36% deficit), Wayanad (37%), and Malappuram (26%).
• Last year also saw a below-normal southwest monsoon (-13%) in Kerala; though, subsequent northeast monsoonal rains replenished water bodies.
• Evolving negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña-like conditions may influence upcoming northeast monsoonal patterns.

Indian Opinion Analysis

This early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon and consistent shortfall in rainfall for two consecutive years coudl raise concerns about water security across regions dependent on seasonal precipitation for agriculture and livelihood. While IMD categorizes this year’s Southwest Monsoon as “normal,” local variations-especially deficits in districts like Idukki and Wayanad-underscore potential challenges for specific geographic zones.

The evolving climatic drivers such as negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña indicate potential deviations during the approaching northeast monsoon period that warrant close observation. This highlights how global oceanic phenomena directly impact localized weather systems crucial for India’s agrarian economy.

Continued refinement of forecasting models by agencies like IMD may help better anticipate regional trends tied to global climatic shifts-a vital step considering India’s dependence on unpredictable rain cycles.

Read more: Indian Opinion Article